We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7°C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945–1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.

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This Issue

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences cover image

15 November 2007

Volume 365Issue 1860

Theme Issue ‘Climate change and urban areas’ compiled by Julian C. R. Hunt, Mark Maslin, Peter Backlund, Tim Killeen and H. John Schellnhuber

Article Information

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2083
Published by:Royal Society
Print ISSN:1364-503X
Online ISSN:1471-2962

History:

Published online30/07/2007
Published in print15/11/2007

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