It has been suggested that, during the Pliocene (ca 5–1.8 Ma), an El Niño state existed as a permanent rather than an intermittent feature; that is, the tropical Pacific Ocean was characterized by a much weaker east–west gradient than today. One line of inquiry used to investigate this idea relates modern El Niño teleconnections to Pliocene proxy data by comparing regional differences in precipitation and surface temperature with climate patterns associated with present-day El Niño events, assuming that agreement between Pliocene data and observations of modern El Niño events supports this interpretation. Here, we examine this assumption by comparing outputs from a suite of Mid-Pliocene climate simulations carried out with the UK Met Office climate model. Regional patterns of climate change associated with changes in model boundary conditions are compared with observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnection patterns. Our results indicate that many of the proposed ‘permanent El Niño’ surface temperature and precipitation patterns are observable in Mid-Pliocene climate simulations even when they display variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or when forced with a modern east–west SST gradient. Our experiments highlight the possibility that the same outcome may be achieved through different initial conditions (equifinality); an important consideration for reconstructed patterns of regional Mid-Pliocene climate.

References

Achutarao K& Sperber K.R. 2002Simulation of El Niño Southern Oscillation: results from the coupled model intercomparison project. Clim. Dyn. 19, 191–209.doi:10.1007/s00382-001-0221-9. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Ager T.ATerrestrial palynological and paleobotanical records of Pliocene age from Alaska and Yukon Territory. Pliocene terrestrial environments and data/model comparisons. & Thompson R.SUS Geological Survey open file report, 94-231994pp. 1–3. Eds. Reston, VA:US Geological Survey. Google Scholar
Allmon W.D. 1993Age, diversity and mode of deposition of the densely fossiliferous Pinecrest sand (Pliocene of Florida): implications for the role of biological productivity in shell bed formation. Palaios. 8, 183–201.doi:10.2307/3515171. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Barreiro M, Philander G, Pacanowski R& Fedorov A. 2005Simulations of warm tropical conditions with application to middle Pliocene atmospheres. Clim. Dyn. 26, 349–365.doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0086-4. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Berggren, W. A., Kent, D. V., Swisher, C. C. & Aubry, M. P. 1995 A revised Cenozoic geochronology and chronostratigraphy. In Geochronology, time scales and global stratigraphic correlation, vol. 54 (eds W. A. Berggren, D. V. Kent, M. P. Aubry, J. Hardenbol). SEPM Special Publications, pp. 129–212. Tulsa, OK: Society for Sedimentary Geology. Google Scholar
Brohan P, Kennedy J.J, Harris I, Tett S.F.B& Jones P.D. 2006Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D12 106doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Brown J, Collins M& Tudhope A. 2006Coupled model simulations of mid-Holocene ENSO and comparisons with coral oxygen isotope records. Adv. Geosci. 6, 29–33. Crossref, Google Scholar
Cane M.A& Molnar P. 2001Closing of the Indonesian Seaway as a precursor to east African aridification around 3 to 4 million years ago. Nature. 411, 157–162.doi:10.1038/35075500. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar
Cannariato K& Ravelo A.C. 1997Plio-Pleistocene evolution of eastern tropical Pacific surface water circulation and thermocline depth. Paleoceanography. 12, 805–820.doi:10.1029/97PA02514. . Crossref, Google Scholar
Cattle H& Crossley J. 1995Modelling arctic climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 352, 201–213.doi:10.1098/rsta.1995.0064. . Abstract, Google Scholar
Chaisson W& Ravelo A.C. 2000Pliocene development of the east–west hydrographic gradient in the equatorial Pacific. Paleoceanography. 15, 497–505.doi:10.1029/1999PA000442. . Crossref, Google Scholar
Charles C.D, Hunter D.E& Fairbanks R.G. 1997Interaction between the ENSO and the Asian monsoon in a coral record of tropical climate. Science. 277, 925–928.doi:10.1126/science.277.5328.925. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Collins MUnderstanding uncertainties in the response of ENSO to greenhouse warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 2000a3509–3512.doi:10.1029/2000GL011747. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Collins MThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the second Hadley Centre coupled model and its response to greenhouse warming. J. Clim. 13, 2000b1299–1312.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1299:TENOSO>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Collins M& The CMIP Modelling Groups. 2005El Niño- or La Niña-like climate change?. Clim. Dyn. 24, 89–104.doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0478-x. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Collins M, Tett S.F.B& Cooper C. 2001The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dyn. 17, 61–81.doi:10.1007/s003820000094. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Cox P, Betts R, Bunton C, Essery R, Rowntree P.R& Smith J. 1999The impact of new land-surface physics on the GCM simulation and climate sensitivity. Clim. Dyn. 15, 183–203.doi:10.1007/s003820050276. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Cronin T.M. 1991Pliocene shallow water paleoceanography of the North Atlantic Ocean based on marine ostracodes. Q. Sci. Rev. 10, 175–188.doi:10.1016/0277-3791(91)90017-O. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Cronin T.M& Dowsett H.J. 1990A quantitative micropaleontologic method for shallow marine paleoclimatology: application to Pliocene deposits of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Mar. Micropaleontol. 16, 117–148.doi:10.1016/0377-8398(90)90032-H. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Cronin T.M& Dowsett H.JBiotic and oceanographic response to the Pliocene closing of the Central American Isthmus. Evolution and environment in tropical America, Jackson J.B.C, Budd A.F& Coates A.G. 1996pp. 76–104. Eds. Chicago, IL:University of Chicago. Google Scholar
Cronin T.M, Kitamura A, Ikeya N, Watanabe M& Kamiya T. 1994Late Pliocene paleoceanography, Sea of Japan: the Yabuta formation. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 108, 437–455.doi:10.1016/0031-0182(94)90245-3. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Cubash, U., Meehl, G.A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S. & Yap, K. S. Projections of future climate change. In Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the 3rd assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (eds J. T. Houghton et al.), pp. 525–582. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar
Cusack S, Slingo A, Edwards J.M& Wild M. 1998The radiative impact of a simple aerosol climatology on the Hadley Centre GCM. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 2517–2526.doi:10.1002/qj.49712455117. . ISI, Google Scholar
Dowsett H. 2007Faunal re-evaluation of mid-Pliocene conditions in the western equatorial Pacific. Micropaleontology. 53, 447–456. Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Dowsett H.J& Cronin T.M. 1990High eustatic sea level during the Middle Pliocene: evidence from the southeastern US Atlantic coastal plain. Geology. 18, 43–438.doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1990)018<0435:HESLDT>2.3.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Dowsett H.J& Poore R.Z. 1990A new planktic foraminifer transfer function for estimating Pliocene–Holocene paleoceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic. Mar. Micropaleontol. 16, 1–23.doi:10.1016/0377-8398(90)90026-I. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Dowsett H.J& Poore R.Z. 1991Pliocene sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean at 3.0 Ma. Q. Sci. Rev. 10, 189–204.doi:10.1016/0277-3791(91)90018-P. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Dowsett H.J& Robinson M.M. 2009Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 367, 109–125.doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0206. . Link, ISI, Google Scholar
Dowsett, H. J., Barron, J. A., Poore, R. Z., Thompson, R. S., Cronin, T. M., Ishman, S. E. & Willard, D. A. 1999 Middle Pliocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction: PRISM2. USGS open file report, 99-535. See http://pubs.usgs.gov/openfile/of99-535. Google Scholar
Edwards J.M& Slingo A. 1996Studies with a flexible new radiation code 1: choosing a configuration for a large-scale model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 689–719.doi:10.1002/qj.49712253107. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Fedorov A.V, Dekens P.S, McCarthy M, Ravelo A.C, deMenocal P.B, Barreiro M, Pacanowski R.C& Philander S.G. 2006The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño). Science. 312, 1485–1489.doi:10.1126/science.1122666. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar
Gaur R& Chopra S.R.K. 1984Taphonomy, fauna, environment and ecology of the Upper Siwaliks (Plio-Pleistocene) near Chandigarh. Nature. 308, 353–355.doi:10.1038/308353a0. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Gent P.R& McWilliams J.C. 1990Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 20, 150–155.doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior C.A, Banks H, Gregory J.M, Johns T.C, Mitchell J.F.B& Wood R.A. 2000The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dyn. 16, 147–168.doi:10.1007/s003820050010. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Graham ALate Tertiary paleoaltitudes and vegetational zonation in Mexico and Central America. Acta Bot. Neerl. 38, 1989a417–424. Crossref, Google Scholar
Graham APaleofloristic and paleoclimatic changes in the Tertiary of northern Latin America. Rev. Paleobot. Palynol. 60, 1989b283–293.doi:10.1016/0034-6667(89)90047-X. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Gregory J.M& Mitchell J.F.B. 1997The climate response to CO₂ of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 1943–1946.doi:10.1029/97GL01930. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Gregory D, Kershaw R& Inness P.M. 1997Parameterisation of momentum transport by convection: II. Tests in single column and general circulation models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 123, 1153–1183.doi:10.1002/qj.49712354103. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Guilyardi E. 2006El Niño–mean state–seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble. Clim. Dyn. 26, 329–348.doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0084-6. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Haug G.H, Sigman D.M, Tiedemann R, Pedersen T.F& Sarnthein M. 1999Onset of permanent stratification in the subarctic Pacific Ocean. Nature. 401, 779–782.doi:10.1038/44550. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Haywood A.M& Valdes P.J. 2004Modelling middle Pliocene warmth: contribution of atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 218, 363–377.doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00685-X. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Haywood A.M& Valdes P.J. 2006Vegetation cover in a warmer world simulated using a dynamic global vegetation model for the Mid-Pliocene. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 237, 412–427.doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.12.012. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Haywood A.M, Valdes P.J& Sellwood B.W. 2000Global scale palaeoclimate reconstruction of the middle Pliocene climate using the UKMO GCM: initial results. Global Planet. Change. 25, 239–256.doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(00)00028-X. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Haywood A.M, Dekens P, Ravelo A.C& Williams M. 2005Warmer tropics during the mid-Pliocene? Evidence from alkenone paleothermometry and a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 6, 1–20.doi:10.1029/2004GC000799. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Haywood A.M, Valdes P.J& Peck V.L. 2007A permanent El Niño-like state during the Pliocene?. Paleoceanography. 22, PA1213doi:10.1029/2006PA001323. . Crossref, Google Scholar
Haywood A.M, Dowsett H.J, Valdes P.J, Lunt D.J, Francis J.E& Sellwood B.W. 2009Introduction. Pliocene climate, processes and problems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 367, 3–17.doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0205. . Link, ISI, Google Scholar
Heusser L.E& Morley J.J. 1996Pliocene climate of Japan and environs between 4.8 and 2.8 Ma: a joint pollen and marine faunal study. Mar. Micropaleontol. 27, 3–12.doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00053-4. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Hovan S.A. 1995Late Cenozoic atmospheric circulation intensity and climatic history recorded by eolian deposition in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, Leg 138. Proc. Ocean Drill. Program Sci. Results. 138, 615–625. Google Scholar
Huber M& Caballero R. 2003Eocene El Niño: evidence for robust tropical dynamics in the “Hothouse”. Science. 299, 877–881.doi:10.1126/science.1078766. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar
Huybers P& Molnar P. 2007Tropical cooling and the onset of North America glaciations. Clim. Past Discuss. 3, 771–789. Crossref, Google Scholar
Koutavas A, deMenocal G, Olive C& Lynch-Stieglitz J. 2006Mid-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) attenuation revealed by individual foraminifera in eastern tropical Pacific sediments. Geology. 34, 993–996.doi:10.1130/G22810A.1. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Kürschner W.M, Van der Burgh J, Visscher H& Dilcher D.L. 1996Oak leaves as biosensors of late Neogene and early Pleistocene paleoatmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Mar. Micropaleontol. 27, 299–312.doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00067-4. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Molnar P& Cane M.A. 2002El Niño's tropical climate and teleconnections as a blueprint for pre-Ice Age climates. Paleoceanography. 17, 10–21.doi:10.1029/2001PA000663. . Crossref, Google Scholar
Molnar P& Cane M.A. 2007Early Pliocene (pre-Ice Age) El Niño-like global climate: which El Niño?. Geosphere. 3, 337–365.doi:10.1130/GES00103. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Momohara A. 1994Floral and paleoenvironmental history from late Pliocene to middle Pleistocene in and around central Japan. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 108, 281–293.doi:10.1016/0031-0182(94)90237-2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Philander S.G& Fedorov A.V. 2003Role of tropics in changing the response to Milankovich forcing some three million years ago. Paleoceanography. 18, 10–45.doi:10.1029/2002PA000837. . Crossref, Google Scholar
Pope V.D, Gallani M.L, Rowntree P.R& Stratton R.A. 2000The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Clim. Dyn. 16, 123–146.doi:10.1007/s003820050009. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Ravelo A.C, Dekens P.S& McCarthy M. 2006Evidence for El Niño-like conditions during the Pliocene. GSA Today. 16, 4–11.doi:10.1130/1052-5173(2006)016<4:EFENLC>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, Google Scholar
Raymo M.E& Rau G.H. 1992Plio-Pleistocene atmospheric CO₂ levels inferred from POM δ¹³C at DSDP Site 607. Eos Trans. AGU Fall Meet. Suppl. 73, 95. Google Scholar
Raymo M.E, Grant B, Horowitz M& Rau G.H. 1996Mid-Pliocene warmth: stronger greenhouse and stronger conveyor. Mar. Micropaleontol. 27, 313–326.doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00048-8. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Rickaby R.E.M& Halloran P. 2005Cool La Niña during the warmth of the Pliocene?. Science. 307, 1948–1952.doi:10.1126/science.1104666. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar
Ropelewski C.F& Halpert M.S. 1987Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 115, 1606–1626.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Ropelewski C.F& Halpert M.S. 1996Quantifying Southern Oscillation–precipitation relationships. J. Clim. 9, 1043–1059.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1043:QSOPR>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Salzmann U, Haywood A.M, Lunt D.J, Valdes P.J& Hill D.J. 2008A new global biome reconstruction and data–model comparison for the middle Pliocene. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 17, 432–447.doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2008.00381.x.. . Crossref, Google Scholar
Smith G.A. 1994Climatic influences on continental deposition during late-stage filling of an extensional basin, southeastern Arizona. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 106, 1212–1228.doi:10.1130/0016-7606(1994)106<1212:CIOCDD>2.3.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Smith G.R& Patterson W.P. 1994Mio-Pliocene seasonality on the Snake River plain: comparison of faunal and oxygen isotopic evidence. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 107, 291–302.doi:10.1016/0031-0182(94)90101-5. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M. & Averyt, K. B. 2007 Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Google Scholar
Thompson R.S. 1991Pliocene environments and climates in the western United States. Q. Sci. Rev. 10, 115–132.doi:10.1016/0277-3791(91)90013-K. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Thompson R.S. 1996Pliocene and early Pleistocene environments and climates of the western Snake River Plain, Idaho. Mar. Micropaleontol. 27, 141–156.doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00056-9. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Thompson R.S& Fleming R.F. 1996Middle Pliocene vegetation: reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climatic modeling. Mar. Micropaleontol. 27, 13–26.doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00050-X. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Trenberth K.E, Branstator G.W, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau N.C& Ropelewski C. 1998Progress during TOGA in understanding and modelling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 291–324.doi:10.1029/97JC01444. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Tudhope A.W, Chilcott C.P, McCulloch M.T, Cook E.R, Chappell J, Ellam R.M, Lea D.W, Lough J.M& Shimmield G.B. 2001Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial–interglacial cycle. Science. 291, 1511–1517.doi:10.1126/science.1057969. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar
Van Der Burgh J, Visscher H, Dilcher D.L& Küshner W.M. 1993Paleoatmospheric signatures in Neogene fossil leaves. Science. 260, 1788–1790.doi:10.1126/science.260.5115.1788. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar
Wara M.W, Ravelo A.C& Delaney M.L. 2005Permanent El Niño-like conditions during the Pliocene warm period. Science. 309, 758–761.doi:10.1126/science.1112596. . Crossref, PubMed, ISI, Google Scholar
Willard D.A. 1994Palynological record from the North Atlantic region at 3 Ma: vegetation distribution during a period of global warmth. Rev. Paleobot. Palynol. 83, 275–297.doi:10.1016/0034-6667(94)90141-4. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Willard D.A, Cronin T.M, Ishman S.E& Litwin R.J. 1993Terrestrial and marine records of climate and environmental change during the Pliocene in subtropical Florida. Geology. 21, 679–682.doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1993)021<0679:TAMROC>2.3.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Williams M, et al.2009Pliocene climate and seasonality in North Atlantic shelf seas. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 367, 85–108.doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0224. . Link, ISI, Google Scholar
Wolfe J.A. 1994An analysis of Neogene climates in Beringia. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 108, 207–216.doi:10.1016/0031-0182(94)90234-8. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Xie P& Arkin P.A. 1997Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2539–2558.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar
Zarate M.A& Fasana J.L. 1989The Plio-Pleistocene record of the central eastern Pampas, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina: the Chapadmalal Case Study. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 72, 27–52.doi:10.1016/0031-0182(89)90130-2. . Crossref, ISI, Google Scholar

This Issue

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences cover image

13 January 2009

Volume 367Issue 1886

Theme Issue ‘The Pliocene. A vision of Earth in the late twenty-first century?’ compiled by Alan M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett and Paul J. Valdes

Article Information

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0212
Published by:Royal Society
Print ISSN:1364-503X
Online ISSN:1471-2962

History:

Published online16/10/2008
Published in print13/01/2009

License:

Citations and impact

Keywords

Subjects