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Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers

Edward J. Dlugokencky

Edward J. Dlugokencky

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, USA

[email protected]

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Euan G. Nisbet

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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Rebecca Fisher

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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David Lowry

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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Edward J. Dlugokencky

Edward J. Dlugokencky

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, USA

[email protected]

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,

Euan G. Nisbet

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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,

Rebecca Fisher

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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and

David Lowry

Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK

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Published:28 May 2011https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0341

Abstract

A factor of 2.5 increase in the global abundance of atmospheric methane (CH₄) since 1750 contributes 0.5 Wm⁻² to total direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (2.77 Wm⁻² in 2009), while its role in atmospheric chemistry adds another approximately 0.2 Wm⁻² of indirect forcing. Since CH₄ has a relatively short lifetime and it is very close to a steady state, reductions in its emissions would quickly benefit climate. Sensible emission mitigation strategies require quantitative understanding of CH₄’s budget of emissions and sinks. Atmospheric observations of CH₄ abundance and its rate of increase, combined with an estimate of the CH₄ lifetime, constrain total global CH₄ emissions to between 500 and 600 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹. While total global emissions are constrained reasonably well, estimates of emissions by source sector vary by up to a factor of 2. Current observation networks are suitable to constrain emissions at large scales (e.g. global) but not at the regional to national scales necessary to verify emission reductions under emissions trading schemes. Improved constraints on the global CH₄ budget and its break down of emissions by source sector and country will come from an enhanced observation network for CH₄ abundance and its isotopic composition (δ¹³C, δD (D=²H) and δ¹⁴C). Isotopic measurements are a valuable tool in distinguishing among various sources that contribute emissions to an air parcel, once fractionation by loss processes is accounted for. Isotopic measurements are especially useful at regional scales where signals are larger. Reducing emissions from many anthropogenic source sectors is cost-effective, but these gains may be cancelled, in part, by increasing emissions related to economic development in many parts of the world. An observation network that can quantitatively assess these changing emissions, both positive and negative, is required, especially in the context of emissions trading schemes.

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Umezawa T, Machida T, Ishijima K, Matsueda H, Sawa Y, Patra P, Aoki S and Nakazawa T (2012) Carbon and hydrogen isotopic ratios of atmospheric methane in the upper troposphere over the Western Pacific, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-12-8095-2012, 12:17, (8095-8113)

Kenea S, Lee H, Joo S, Li S, Labzovskii L, Chung C and Kim Y (2021) Interannual Variability of Atmospheric CH4 and Its Driver Over South Korea Captured by Integrated Data in 2019, Remote Sensing, 10.3390/rs13122266, 13:12, (2266)

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Hayman G, O'Connor F, Dalvi M, Clark D, Gedney N, Huntingford C, Prigent C, Buchwitz M, Schneising O, Burrows J, Wilson C, Richards N and Chipperfield M (2014) Comparison of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model against in situ and SCIAMACHY atmospheric methane data, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-14-13257-2014, 14:23, (13257-13280)

Turner A, Jacob D, Wecht K, Maasakkers J, Lundgren E, Andrews A, Biraud S, Boesch H, Bowman K, Deutscher N, Dubey M, Griffith D, Hase F, Kuze A, Notholt J, Ohyama H, Parker R, Payne V, Sussmann R, Sweeney C, Velazco V, Warneke T, Wennberg P and Wunch D (2015) Estimating global and North American methane emissions with high spatial resolution using GOSAT satellite data, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-15-7049-2015, 15:12, (7049-7069)

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Wolfe G, Kawa S, Hanisco T, Hannun R, Newman P, Swanson A, Bailey S, Barrick J, Thornhill K, Diskin G, DiGangi J, Nowak J, Sorenson C, Bland G, Yungel J and Swenson C (2018) The NASA Carbon Airborne Flux Experiment (CARAFE): instrumentation and methodology, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 10.5194/amt-11-1757-2018, 11:3, (1757-1776)

Bergamaschi P, Karstens U, Manning A, Saunois M, Tsuruta A, Berchet A, Vermeulen A, Arnold T, Janssens-Maenhout G, Hammer S, Levin I, Schmidt M, Ramonet M, Lopez M, Lavric J, Aalto T, Chen H, Feist D, Gerbig C, Haszpra L, Hermansen O, Manca G, Moncrieff J, Meinhardt F, Necki J, Galkowski M, O'Doherty S, Paramonova N, Scheeren H, Steinbacher M and Dlugokencky E (2018) Inverse modelling of European CH<sub>4</sub> emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-18-901-2018, 18:2, (901-920)

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Riddick S, Connors S, Robinson A, Manning A, Jones P, Lowry D, Nisbet E, Skelton R, Allen G, Pitt J and Harris N (2017) Estimating the size of a methane emission point source at different scales: from local to landscape, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10.5194/acp-17-7839-2017, 17:12, (7839-7851)

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Stanley K, Grant A, O'Doherty S, Young D, Manning A, Stavert A, Spain T, Salameh P, Harth C, Simmonds P, Sturges W, Oram D and Derwent R (2018) Greenhouse gas measurements from a UK network of tall towers: technical description and first results, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 10.5194/amt-11-1437-2018, 11:3, (1437-1458)

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This Issue

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences cover image

28 May 2011

Volume 369Issue 1943

Discussion Meeting Issue 'Greenhouse gases in the Earth system: setting the agenda to 2030' organized and edited by Andrew C. Manning, Euan G. Nisbet, Ralph F. Keeling and Peter S. Liss

Article Information

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0341
Published by:Royal Society
Print ISSN:1364-503X
Online ISSN:1471-2962

History:

Published online28/05/2011
Published in print28/05/2011

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This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society

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