Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
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Theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’ compiled and edited by Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Dr William Waites, and Professor Graeme J. Ackland

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of mathematical modelling in informing and advising policy decision making. Via a collection of sixteen papers, this issue showcases how the Royal Society coordinated efforts of diverse scientists to help model the coronavirus epidemic and overcome a number of technical challenges. Different papers address the utilisations of different technical modelling frameworks and how different techniques are combined, show how modelling of different scenarios can give informed scientific advice, discuss how to correctly quantify the uncertainty of the model parameters and projections, and flag up the importance of transparency and robustness of models and numerical code to ensure reproducibility of the results.

Read more in a blog post by one of the Guest Editors.

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Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20220179


The Royal Society RAMP modelling initiative
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210316


Research articles
Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210315

Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210314

Research articles
Bayesian emulation and history matching of JUNE
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20220039

Research articles
Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210308

Research articles
An algebraic framework for structured epidemic modelling
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210309

Research articles
Fitting the reproduction number from UK coronavirus case data and why it is close to 1
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210301

Research articles
Estimation of local time-varying reproduction numbers in noisy surveillance data
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210303

Research articles
Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210307

Research articles
Tracking the national and regional COVID-19 epidemic status in the UK using weighted principal component analysis
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210302

Research articles
Estimation of age-stratified contact rates during the COVID-19 pandemic using a novel inference algorithm
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210298

Research articles
Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210311

Research articles
Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210299

Research articles
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210304

Research articles
Refining epidemiological forecasts with simple scoring rules
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210305

Research articles
Reformulating the susceptible–infectious–removed model in terms of the number of detected cases: well-posedness of the observational model
Published:15 August 2022Article ID:20210306