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Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

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Theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’ compiled and edited by Robin N. Thompson and Ellen Brooks-Pollock

About the issue

The 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic claimed around fifty million deaths worldwide. Interventions were introduced to reduce the spread of the virus, but these were not based on quantitative assessments of the likely effects of different control strategies. One hundred years later, mathematical models are routinely used for forecasting and to help plan interventions during outbreaks in populations of humans, animals and plants. While there are differences between epidemiological systems with different host types, there are also similarities between the questions that modelling is used to address. However, individual mathematical epidemiologists tend to focus on a single host type. With the current interest in One Health, in which systems are considered holistically, more inter-disciplinary collaboration between mathematical epidemiologists focussing on outbreaks in different populations will allow the development of quantitative methods to be optimised. In these theme issues, we present articles by researchers who work on modelling outbreaks in populations of humans, animals and plants. Partnerships between modellers from these related disciplines, combined with interaction with epidemiologists and decision makers, will permit epidemic responses to be performed most effectively.

This issue is the second of two parts. Part 1, 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes' is also available to read.

PREFACE

Preface
Preface to theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20190375

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0375

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ARTICLES

Review articles
Outbreak analytics: a developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180276

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0276

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Opinion piece
How decision makers can use quantitative approaches to guide outbreak responses
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180365

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0365

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Research articles
Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180261

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0261

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Research articles
Translating surveillance data into incidence estimates
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180262

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0262

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Research articles
New methodologies for the estimation of population vulnerability to diseases: a case study of Lassa fever and Ebola in Nigeria and Sierra Leone
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180265

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0265

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Research articles
Forecasting and control of emerging infectious forest disease through participatory modelling
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180283

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0283

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Research articles
Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180267

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0267

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Research articles
A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180260

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0260

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Research articles
Analysing livestock network data for infectious disease control: an argument for routine data collection in emerging economies
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180264

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0264

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Research articles
Context matters: using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180277

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0277

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Research articles
Perfect counterfactuals for epidemic simulations
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180279

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0279

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Review articles
Using models to provide rapid programme support for California's efforts to suppress Huanglongbing disease of citrus
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180281

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0281

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Research articles
Optimizing spatial and seasonal deployment of vaccination campaigns to eliminate wildlife rabies
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180280

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0280

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Research articles
Applying optimal control theory to complex epidemiological models to inform real-world disease management
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180284

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0284

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Research articles
Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20180431

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0431

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CORRECTIONS

Corrections
Correction to ‘Modelling the evolution of viral oncogenesis’
Published:20 May 2019Article ID:20190394

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0394

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Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences cover image
08 July 2019
Volume 374Issue 1776

Editor-In-Chief

Professor Richard Dixon FRS

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